Misali sen ka sen: Martingale tulonsigi kelen
Dolari tan bilenman kan, a bɛ caya siɲɛ fila bɔnɛ o bɔnɛ kɔfɛ, $500 tabali kan. Munumunuli kelen kelen, ani munumunuli min bɛ a ban.
Martingale tulonsigi ladegelen ka bɔ $1,000 tulon wari la. Sɔrɔ fitini binaani ni kelen, o kɔ bɔnɛ wɔɔrɔ tugunnen ani pari wolonwulanan min ban na. Tulonsigi bɛ ban ni $220 bɔnɛ ye, ka kɔn ka $410 tɔnɔ sɔrɔ; fɛɛrɛ bɛ min kɛ, o don.
Labɛn
Pari kɛ $10 la bilenmanpariBilenmanPari kelen-kelen nimɔrɔ bilenman 18 kan. Faransi kan na: rouge.A bɛɛ kalan → kan. Bɔnɛ kɔfɛ, a caya siɲɛ fila. Sɔrɔ kɔfɛ, segin $10 ma. Tabali dantabaliTabali danPari dan dɔgɔman ni dan belebele min sɔnna. Dan belebele de bɛ pari fila-fila yɛlɛmali fɛɛrɛw jɔ.A bɛɛ kalan → ye $500 ye, o la pari wari ye 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 ye, o kɔ $640 pari min tabali bɛna ban. Bɔnɛ wɔɔrɔ tugunnen bɛ fɛɛrɛ tiɲɛ; kɔrɔbɔli kelen kelen bɛ se ka o kɛ (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% la, ani tulonsigi munumunuli 100 kɔnɔ, kɔrɔbɔli 50 ɲɔgɔn bɛ yen. Min makɔnɔnen don: a tiɲɛni kɛli seko bɛ 60% ɲɔgɔn na munumunuli 100 kɔnɔ, ani $630 bɔnɛ ni o kɛra.
Munumunuli 1–30
MartingalefɛɛrɛMartingaleYɛlɛmali fɛɛrɛ min bɛ pari wari fila bɔnɛ kelen o kelen kɔfɛ. Fɛɛrɛw yɔrɔ lajɛ k'a dɔn a bɛ min kɛ ani a tɛ min kɛ.A bɛɛ kalan → gansan: bɔnɛ kelen fo saba tugunnenw, sɔrɔ bɛ u kelen kelen ban ni +$10 tɔnɔ ye. Munumunuli 30nan na, an ye sɔrɔ 17 sɔrɔ, u kelen kelen bɛ tagama dɔ dafa, ani an bɛ $170 tɔnɔ la. Pari wari belebele fo sisan tun ye $80 ye bɔnɛ saba kɔfɛ. A bɛ i n'a fɔ masin don min bɛ $10 wariden bɔ.
Munumunuli 31–60
O ɲɔgɔn kelen tun, ni tagama kelen ye min bɔnɛ ye naani ye (pari wari sera $160 ma, o kɔ sɔrɔ), o ye $310 bila tabali kan waati surun kɔnɔ, ani a tun bɛ i n'a fɔ jagɛlɛya. Munumunuli 60 kɔfɛ: tagama 41 dafara, $410 tɔnɔ, ani kabini munumunuli 30, tulon wariwariTulon wariWari bɛɛ min bilala kɛrɛfɛ tulon kama. Tulon wari ɲɛnabɔli ye ka latigɛ a hakɛ min bɛ se ka bila farati la pari kelen o kelen ani tulonsigi kelen o kelen na.A bɛɛ kalan → jiginna ka se $1,040 ma dɔrɔn. Martingale tulonsigi bɛɛ histogramu bɛ i n'a fɔ nin a janya fan caman na.
Munumunuli 61–66
T T T T T T. Pari wari 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 tununna. Pari nata tun bɛna kɛ $640 ye; dan ye $500 ye. Fɛɛrɛ tiɲɛna. An bɛ se ka pari kɛ $500 la (ani ni a sɔrɔla, an bɛ to $130 bɔnɛ la tagama kɔnɔ hali bi) walima ka segin $10 ma ka sɔn bɔnɛ ma. FinmanpariFinmanPari kelen-kelen nimɔrɔ finman 18 kan. Faransi kan na: noir.A bɛɛ kalan → walima zeromunumunufɛnZeroDingɛ binkɛnɛman kelenpe min tɛ pari kelen-kelen, duzɛn pari walima kolɔn pari si kɔnɔ; kazino ka nafa bɛ bɔ a de la. A tɔgɔ wɛrɛ: zero kelen, 0.A bɛɛ kalan → wɔɔrɔ tugunnen, o kɛli sekojatebɔKɛli sekoJaabi dɔ kɛli seko, ka bɔ 0 la ka se 1 ma walima ka bɔ 0% la ka se 100% ma. Nimɔrɔ kelen: 1/37 = 2.70%.A bɛɛ kalan → ye 1.8% ye tagama kelen kelen na. An tun ye tagama 45 ɲɔgɔn kɛ. Ka se nin yɔrɔ ma tagama 45 kɔnɔ yɔrɔ dɔ la, o kɛli seko tun ye 55% ɲɔgɔn ye. O tun tɛ kunnajugu ye; o tun ye mediyani de ye.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- mediyani −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Jatebɔ
$410 tɔnɔ munumunuli 60 kɔfɛ, $220 bɔnɛ munumunuli 66 kɔfɛ. Pari wari bɛɛ: $2,100 ɲɔgɔn munumunuli 66 kɔnɔ, ka a suma $660 ma tulonkɛla min bɛ $10 kelen bila tuma bɛɛ. Bɔnɛ makɔnɔnenjatebɔBɔnɛ makɔnɔnenHakɛ makɔnɔnen siɲɛ pari wari bɛɛ; wari tununnen cɛmancɛ hakɛ tulonsigi walima waati dɔ kɔnɔ.A bɛɛ kalan → pari wari bɛɛwariPari wari bɛɛWari bɛɛ min bilala pari la tulonsigi walima waati dɔ kɔnɔ, sɔrɔ minw seginna ka pari kɛ, olu jatelen. A tɔgɔ wɛrɛw: handle, action.A bɛɛ kalan → $2,100 kan ye $57 ye; an ta min kɛra, −$220, o ye jɛnsɛnni sumananjatebɔJɛnsɛnni sumananJɛnsɛnni hakɛ ju jate; jaabi ni hakɛ makɔnɔnen cɛ janya laadalama.A bɛɛ kalan → kelen sabanan ɲɔgɔn ye o duguma, o tɛ kabako ye fɛɛrɛ la min ka tilali numanfɛ kun ka jan. N'an tun jɔra munumunuli 60nan na ni tɔnɔ danfɛɛrɛTɔnɔ danTɔnɔ laɲini latigɛlen ka kɔn, i bɛ tulonsigi jɔ ni i sera o ma.A bɛɛ kalan → $400 ye, an tun bɛna taa ni $410 tɔnɔ ye, ani tulonsigi nata tun bɛna 1.8% kelen in ta tagama kelen kelen na.
Tulonsigi bɛ min jira
Martingale bɛ pari 48.65% yɛlɛma ka kɛ tugunni ye min bɛ sɔrɔ a ka tagamaw 98% la ani ka initewariInitePari wari jukɔrɔ min na fɛɛrɛ walima tulonkɛla bɛ baara kɛ. Yɛlɛmali fɛɛrɛw bɛ ɲɛfɔ ni initew ye walasa u ka se ka kɛ tabali o tabali la.A bɛɛ kalan → 63 tunun 2% tɔ la. A tɛ bɔnɛ makɔnɔnen yɛlɛma dolari kelen kelen na; a bɛ dolariw caya. Pari wari kelen tulonkɛla min tun bɛ an kɛrɛ fɛ, o ye a sabanan dɔrɔn bila pari la ani ka a sabanan tunun, cɛmancɛ la. Tulonkɛla min bɛ nin fɛɛrɛ kɛ san kelen, o bɛna sɔrɔ su caman na ani ka san tunun.
Bɔnɛ tugutugu bɛ na tuma joli
Zero kelen munumunufɛn kan, pari kelen-kelen bɛ tunun munumunuli 19 la munumunuli 37 kɔnɔ. Sira kelen o kelen bɛ munumunuli tugutugulen dɔw bɛɛ tununni kɛli seko jira, ani Martingale tulonkɛla, min bɛ pari wari siɲɛ fila bɔnɛ o bɔnɛ kɔ, o ye min tunun fo o waati.
| bɔnɛ tugutugulenw | kɛli seko | ka surun 1 … kɔnɔ | tununnen fo sisan | pari nata |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Kɛli seko ye 19/37 ye, a sigira a yɛrɛ la siɲɛ kelen bɔnɛ kelen o kelen na, ka jate daminɛ munumunuli kelen latigɛlen na. Tulonsigi jan na, munumunuli caman bɛ yen yɔrɔ min na nin tugutugu ɲɔgɔn bɛ se ka daminɛ, o la wula kelen kɔnɔ, a kɛli seko ka bon kosɛbɛ ka tɛmɛ sira kelen ka jira kan.
Ɲininkaliw
Bɔnɛ kɔnɔntɔn de bɛ a tiɲɛ wɔɔrɔ nɔ na: 0.25% tagama kelen kelen na, ani $5,110 bɛ tunun ni o kɛra. Kɔ jigin ka dɔgɔ, kɔ jigin ka jan, −2.70% kelen.
A tun bɛna sɔrɔ 48.65% waati la ani ka tagama to −$130 la o bɛɛ n'a ta. Taamacogo ɲuman tɛ yen Martingale tiɲɛnen kɔfɛ; i bɛ pari wari min sugandi a nɔfɛ, o dɔrɔn de bɛ yen.
Ɔwɔ, o tulonsigi kosɔn. Tulonsigi bɛɛ cɛmancɛ hakɛ kosɔn, ayi.
Ɲɛnajɛ ni jatebɔ ye
A kɛ i yɛrɛ ye fɔlɔ. Jaabi kelen kelen bɛɛ datugulen don; a da wuli ni i labɛnna.
$1 fo $500 tabali dɔ la, MartingalefɛɛrɛMartingaleYɛlɛmali fɛɛrɛ min bɛ pari wari fila bɔnɛ kelen o kelen kɔfɛ. Fɛɛrɛw yɔrɔ lajɛ k'a dɔn a bɛ min kɛ ani a tɛ min kɛ.A bɛɛ kalan → tulonkɛla dɔ bɛ daminɛ ni $1 ye bilenmanpariBilenmanPari kelen-kelen nimɔrɔ bilenman 18 kan. Faransi kan na: rouge.A bɛɛ kalan → kan zeromunumunufɛnZeroDingɛ binkɛnɛman kelenpe min tɛ pari kelen-kelen, duzɛn pari walima kolɔn pari si kɔnɔ; kazino ka nafa bɛ bɔ a de la. A tɔgɔ wɛrɛ: zero kelen, 0.A bɛɛ kalan → kelen munumunufɛn kan. Bɔnɛ joli ɲɔgɔn kɔ bɛ siɲɛ fila bonyali jɔ, wari joli tununna o tuma, ani o bɛ kɛ siɲɛ joli?
Jaabi jira
Jaabi Bɔnɛ kɔnɔntɔn: $511 tununna, ani pari nata tun na kɛ $512 ye. O bɛ kɛ siɲɛ kelen ka surun pari sira 403 kɔnɔ.
Pari wariw ye 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 ani 256 ye: u bɛɛ lajɛlen $511. Tannan tun na kɛ $512 ye, ka tɛmɛ dan kan. Pari $500 min sɔrɔla, o bɛ tulonkɛla to $11 dɔgɔyalen na hali bi; min tununna, o b'a to $1,011 dɔgɔyalen na.
Bilenman bɛ tunun ni kɛli seko 19/37 ye, o la bɔnɛ kɔnɔntɔn ɲɔgɔn kɔ kɛli seko ye (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25% ye, siɲɛ kelen ka surun pari sira 403 kɔnɔ. Pari sira dafalen kelen o kelen bɛ $1 sɔrɔ, o la tulonkɛla bɛ sɔrɔli fitini ka surun $402 makɔnɔ sani bɔnɛ $511 kelen in ka na, ani pari wari bɛɛ ka 2.70% bɛ tunun hali bi cɛmancɛ la.
Zero fila munumunufɛn kan, kɛli seko ye (20/38)⁹ ye, siɲɛ kelen ka surun 323 kɔnɔ. Bollman (2021) bɛ “ka surun 1 833 kɔnɔ” sɛbɛn, o ye (18/38)⁹ ye, sɔrɔli kɔnɔntɔn ɲɔgɔn kɔ kɛli seko.
Yɛlɛko
Sɔrɔ fitini binaani ni kelen ani bɔnɛ ba kelen. Fɛɛrɛ bɛɛ ye o ye.
Kunnafoni sɔrɔyɔrɔw
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”